Scenario simulator — PRN16 Melaka

Coalition configuration

Who contests whom — the model's primary input.

BN vs PH vs PN Three-corner fight BN+PH vs PN BN–PH understanding BN+PN vs PH BN–PN pact · base case BN vs PH+ally vs PN PH absorbs the third-force (Others) vote Three-corner + per-seat Pin / swing each seat

Benchmark 50% GE15 PRN2021 (actual)GE15 (modelled)

Statewide swing (pp)

BN 0 pp PH 0 pp PN 0 pp

Swing SD (correlated) 4 pp Local swing (per seat) 3 pp Coalition leakage 15% Bersama vote-draw scale 100%

Turnout, new voters & simulation

Turnout multiplier ×1.00 New-voter turnout 60%

New-voter lean (pp) — flat assumption, not measured by race (A9):

BN 0 pp PH 0 pp PN 0 pp

Age weighting — GE15 age→bloc layer. Reweights the GE15 vote mix by young (18–29) vs senior (50+) share; gross turnout is held fixed. Effect scales with the GE15 anchor weight.

Young weight (18–29) ×1.00 Senior weight (50+) ×1.00

Ethnic weighting — advanced hypothesis (weakly identified)

Same joint GE15 layer (Malay & Others are the baseline). Saluran do NOT separate ethnicity — treat as a registered assumption, not a measurement.

Chinese weight ×1.00 Indian weight ×1.00

How to read the weighting dials

What a weight dial asks: "what if this group is a bigger or smaller share of the votes cast than it was at GE15?" Chinese weight ×1.2 = their slice of the mix grows 20%. Nobody switches parties — only the mix of who shows up changes. That is why the voter field fades or densifies cells for these dials, and never recolours a dot.

How it works: each seat's GE15 vote is split into 12 persona cells (3 age brackets × 4 ethnic groups), each with its own BN/PH/PN split estimated from saluran-level data. A dial rescales its cells' mass and everything renormalises — total votes cast stay fixed. The dials act only on the GE15 benchmark: at 0% GE15 anchor they do nothing, and say so. A per-seat ethnic weight multiplies the statewide one in that seat's cells.

Why ethnicity is behind a warning: AGE is measured — saluran are age-sorted by construction, so the age→vote signal is well-identified. Saluran do NOT separate ethnicity, so the ethnic splits lean on much weaker evidence. The ethnic dials are registered assumptions, not measurements: they answer "IF this group's mobilisation shifts, THEN…" — they carry no evidence that it will. They are also powerful, and powerful + weakly identified is exactly what the warning is for. Treat them as scenarios, not readings.

Simulations (N) Seed (RNG)

Per-seat win probability

Colour = favoured bloc in the model (win frequency per seat is on the cards below). Flipped seats (amber outline): 2021 → simulated. Grey = ceded (N1–N5) under the GE15 anchor.

seats won (favoured winner per seat)

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N01

KUALA LINGGI

BN+PN

N02

TANJUNG BIDARA

BN+PN

N03

AYER LIMAU

BN+PN

N04

LENDU

BN+PN

N05

TABOH NANING

BN+PN

N06

REMBIA

BN+PN

N07

GADEK

BN+PN

N08

MACHAP JAYA

BN+PN

N09

DURIAN TUNGGAL

BN+PN

N10

ASAHAN

BN+PN

N11

SUNGAI UDANG

BN+PN

N12

PANTAI KUNDOR

BN+PN

N13

PAYA RUMPUT

BN+PN

N14

KELEBANG

BN+PN

N15

PENGKALAN BATU

BN+PN

N16

AYER KEROH

N17

BUKIT KATIL

PH → BN+PN

N18

AYER MOLEK

BN+PN

N19

KESIDANG

N20

KOTA LAKSAMANA

N21

DUYONG

BN+PN

N22

BANDAR HILIR

N23

TELOK MAS

BN+PN

N24

BEMBAN

BN+PN

N25

RIM

BN+PN

N26

SERKAM

BN+PN

N27

MERLIMAU

BN+PN

N28

SUNGAI RAMBAI

BN+PN

kerajaan (BN+PN) bloc seats

23–24 / 28 assessed

Majority probability (≥15): 100%

p05–p95 range across 5,000 simulations (not a single number).

Solid

Competitive

Toss-up

Tier: Solid ≥80% · Competitive ≥55% · Toss-up below that (probability the leading option wins).

28 DUN seats

N1 KUALA LINGGI

Solid

majority ~5,040 votes if won

Defensive Core local swing ±3pp turnout ~61% wins in 100% of simulations

N2 TANJUNG BIDARA

Solid

majority ~7,970 votes if won

Defensive Core local swing ±3pp turnout ~65.1% wins in 100% of simulations

N3 AYER LIMAU

Solid

majority ~7,330 votes if won

Defensive Core local swing ±3pp turnout ~61.2% wins in 100% of simulations

N4 LENDU

Solid

majority ~5,760 votes if won

Defensive Core local swing ±3pp turnout ~62.9% wins in 100% of simulations

N5 TABOH NANING

Solid

majority ~4,390 votes if won

Defensive Core local swing ±3pp turnout ~61.3% wins in 100% of simulations

N6 REMBIA

Solid

majority ~3,950 votes if won

Three-Corner Volatile local swing ±3.9pp turnout ~62.1% wins in 100% of simulations

N7 GADEK

Solid

majority ~2,720 votes if won

Three-Corner Volatile local swing ±3.9pp turnout ~59.6% wins in 100% of simulations

N8 MACHAP JAYA

Solid

majority ~1,920 votes if won

True Marginal local swing ±3.45pp turnout ~62.9% wins in 98% of simulations

N9 DURIAN TUNGGAL

Solid

majority ~3,010 votes if won

Three-Corner Volatile local swing ±3.9pp turnout ~65% wins in 99% of simulations

N10 ASAHAN

Solid

majority ~4,790 votes if won

Defensive Core local swing ±3pp turnout ~62.5% wins in 100% of simulations

N11 SUNGAI UDANG

Solid

majority ~10,650 votes if won

Defensive Core local swing ±3pp turnout ~64.2% wins in 100% of simulations

N12 PANTAI KUNDOR

Solid

majority ~5,490 votes if won

Defensive Core local swing ±3pp turnout ~60.4% wins in 100% of simulations

N13 PAYA RUMPUT

Solid

majority ~6,070 votes if won

Three-Corner Volatile local swing ±3.9pp turnout ~61.8% wins in 99% of simulations

N14 KELEBANG

Solid

majority ~5,630 votes if won

Three-Corner Volatile local swing ±3.9pp turnout ~62.1% wins in 100% of simulations

N15 PENGKALAN BATU

Solid

majority ~3,500 votes if won

Three-Corner Volatile local swing ±3.9pp turnout ~63.3% wins in 99% of simulations

N16 AYER KEROH

Solid

majority ~4,590 votes if won

Opposition Lean local swing ±3pp turnout ~59.9% wins in 99% of simulations

N17 BUKIT KATIL

Solid

majority ~4,000 votes if won

Three-Corner Volatile local swing ±3.9pp turnout ~62.5% wins in 97% of simulations

N18 AYER MOLEK

Solid

majority ~9,000 votes if won

Defensive Core local swing ±3pp turnout ~65.9% wins in 100% of simulations

N19 KESIDANG

Solid

majority ~9,000 votes if won

Opposition Lean local swing ±3pp turnout ~59.4% wins in 100% of simulations

N20 KOTA LAKSAMANA

Solid

majority ~11,580 votes if won

Opposition Lean local swing ±3pp turnout ~58.2% wins in 100% of simulations

N21 DUYONG

Solid

majority ~2,990 votes if won

Candidate/Locality Driven local swing ±4.8pp turnout ~63.8% wins in 94% of simulations

N22 BANDAR HILIR

Solid

majority ~9,510 votes if won

Opposition Lean local swing ±3pp turnout ~57.3% wins in 100% of simulations

N23 TELOK MAS

Solid

majority ~7,030 votes if won

Defensive Core local swing ±3pp turnout ~64.1% wins in 100% of simulations

N24 BEMBAN

Solid

majority ~5,000 votes if won

Three-Corner Volatile local swing ±3.9pp turnout ~62.4% wins in 100% of simulations

N25 RIM

Solid

majority ~4,410 votes if won

Defensive Core local swing ±3pp turnout ~62.4% wins in 100% of simulations

N26 SERKAM

Solid

majority ~10,110 votes if won

Defensive Core local swing ±3pp turnout ~67.1% wins in 100% of simulations

N27 MERLIMAU

Solid

majority ~5,330 votes if won

Defensive Core local swing ±3pp turnout ~65.7% wins in 100% of simulations

N28 SUNGAI RAMBAI

Solid

majority ~5,780 votes if won

Defensive Core local swing ±3pp turnout ~63.4% wins in 100% of simulations

Assumptions in this run

Base case (no changes)

The link carries every slider — shareable and re-checkable.

Engine melaka-mc-2026.08.23-r7 · register v0.3 · link 2026.08.23-r7-v0.4. Conditional sensitivity analysis — not a forecast.

Not a forecast

Conditional scenario — this is NOT a forecast. The tier outcomes depend entirely on the assumptions you choose.

· Two PAST benchmarks that disagree (real PRN2021; modelled GE15) — not a range that contains the future (A8).
· Vote flows (retained/switched/mobilised) CANNOT be identified from two aggregate elections — the sliders are assumptions, not measured flows (A7).
· The new-voter cohort depends on the benchmark (A9): post-2021 at the PRN2021 anchor, post-GE15 at the GE15 anchor. Lean is a flat assumption, not a by-ethnicity measurement.
· expTurnoutPct = gross turnout. Coalition-partner voters who refuse to cross over when their party withdraws from contesting (pactLeakage) ABSTAIN — they leave the voter pool, so gross turnout FALLS and the margin is computed over the remaining valid votes (03-next-plan §77).
· The age & ethnic weighting dials reweight the GE15 vote mix over the joint (age×ethnicity) cells of the saluran-grain layer (melaka-age-ei-2026) and renormalise, so young/senior and Chinese/Indian shares compose jointly (a young-Chinese scenario is one cell, not two stacked tilts) while gross turnout is held fixed. Effect scales with anchorWeight (the layer is GE15-only — inert at the PRN2021 anchor). The signal is a saluran-level ASSOCIATION between mean registered age and bloc valid-vote share (mixing turnout and choice) — not an individual effect and not a turnout estimate. AGE is well-identified (saluran are age-sorted); ETHNICITY is WEAKLY identified (saluran do not separate ethnicity) — treat the ethnic dial as a registered assumption. Bands are age-at-GE15 (2022); a 2026-cohort reading shifts each band ~+4 years.
· A3: only the Bersama vote effect (which shaves PH alone) is modelled — the only additional candidate announced so far. Under configuration D, the remaining OTHER votes are treated as backing PH; vote-direction controls for any further additional candidates are deferred until candidates are announced.